No easy path for unionists

t is Monday October 30, 2017. The Catalan Republic has been proclaimed. It is precisely for this reason, because it has been proclaimed, that several countries have already stated that they will not recognise it. And many more are keeping quiet about it, including some which are very important and significant. That is the reason why Spain has acknowledged the proclamation and told its partners what they needed to say about it and how. And yet we already have one country —one so far— that has made a huge gesture: Belgium has warned Spain and Europe that it would agree to welcome the president of Catalonia in exile. Merely making this gesture public is a massive slap in the face for Madrid. It might have not happened, but it did: Catalonia became an independent country before the eyes of the world last Friday. This was the first goal that we urgently needed to achieve and we succeeded.

However, it seems that triggering Article 155 [of the Spanish constitution] has managed to put a sufficiently large portion of Catalonia’s regional administration to Madrid’s service. We will see whether this state of affairs takes hold and lasts. At any rate, we should focus on what is essential: the Generalitat of Catalonia is much more than a simple administration. The Generalitat is not an oversized provincial government or a mere administration. Rather, it is Catalonia’s political representation and that is why it is important. The president, his government and our parliament represent the Catalan nation, regardless of whether they are effectively running the administration or not. Clear evidence of this is the fact that president Josep Tarradellas represented Catalonia for decades while exiled in France, with no secretary, chauffeur, security detail or cash.

The messages coming from the Spanish nationalist camp are a ruse to pretend that they are running the show now. Above all, they claim that they have resolved the problem by calling a snap election at the end of December this year. This is a surprising statement, given that Catalonia’s voting preferences are fairly well-established and have been sustained in time for decades. The mere trigger of Article 155 would seem very unlikely to alter them. The parties that represented 39 per cent of the Catalan electorate in parliament last Friday aren’t suddenly going to get 50 per cent of the vote overnight and, unless they cheat, they are unlikely to do so in January. Likewise, the one hundred PSC mayors, together with the PP’s only council in Catalonia, do not represent and will not represent an alternative majority to the parties that support self-determination in local government.

For Spanish nationalism, the mise en scène has always been very important. They feel strongly about it and strive for it. But when you scratch the surface, you begin to see things in a different light. Do you recall the plans announced by Rajoy? Well, they were not quite what he is doing at the moment. The Spanish PM claimed that he would govern Catalonia for six months and then would call elections. Isn’t it peculiar that, all of a sudden, he has given up on the idea of ruling Catalonia and has called a snap election —even if it is illegal— with barely any time to prepare for it?

You don’t need to be a genius to understand what has prompted Rajoy to make this about-turn. Despite the loathsome, violent crackdown on October 1, Europe has cynically closed ranks with the Spanish PM and has given Spain some extra time to see if it can come up with a solution to the problem that it has created for itself. But this extra time is not without some conditions: it must be as short as possible and there can be no violence. Those of you who are so vocal about the fact that we haven’t managed to accomplish what we meant to should make a note that the Spanish authorities haven’t, either. Rajoy and the PP did not choose the current state of affairs in Catalonia. Their apparent strength actually reveals their great weakness. How will they avoid a boycott by Catalonia’s civil servants? How will they kick-start the Generalitat’s engine, if it suddenly seizes up and refuses to process anything unless it is after months of nagging? How will they win the elections they have proposed unless it is by openly cheating, which would be largely unacceptable internationally? How will they get the local councils to toe the line? And —I am not certain about this one but it would make some sense— how will they achieve all that without resorting to sanctioned violence and possibly without outlawing Catalonia’s secessionist parties, which is what they wanted and intended to do all along?

I have mentioned how they might win the elections and I do not wish to give the impression that I am persuaded they will actually be held. On the contrary. What matters and is of consequence, what will determine our future in every aspect, including the elections, is what decision the pro-independence movement takes.

I have no preconceptions on the subject of the December elections. If they cannot be held, it will prove that Spain does not control the territory. If they are held and won by the secessionist camp —more likely, unless they are banned from running— then it will show Europe that there can’t be a solution until they approach Catalonia and Spain as interlocutors on equal terms with one another. What will Rajoy do in that scenario? He will ask Brussels permission to shut down the Catalan parliament again. So personally I am still not sure what the best course of action is to keep the republic alive and eventually prevail. However I do ask one thing: let’s make a joint decision. If the political parties and grassroots groups can agree on a single thing, then it will happen. Spain’s dream —its plan, I would venture— is for everyone to make their own individual decision and weaken us all. Therefore, that should be our only red line: let us do nothing that hasn’t been decided with the widest consensus possible. On that and on everything else.

No moves without a prior agreement but, above all, nothing without condemning the violation committed. Carles Puigdemont is Catalonia’s 130th president and there won’t be a legitimate 131st president until he chooses to step down or he is removed from office by the Catalan parliament in a free vote. For that reason, any solution laid down by the pro-independence movement must necessarily include the restoration of the status quo in Catalonia last Friday before Rajoy violated his own constitution.

At this point, I would like to emphasise that, precisely for that reason —there can be no viable political solution for Catalonia unless the parliament elected two years ago and its legitimate government are brought back— the proclamation of the Republic was the most decisive step of all, regardless of whether it has any visible administrative effects or not. Had we not proclaimed it, there would be no place for us to return to, except for Spain’s regional system.